Trump to announce Iran nuke deal decision 'very shortly'

Kristopher Drake
October 13, 2017

Since the historic deal was signed in Vienna, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has repeatedly confirmed the Islamic Republic's compliance with its commitments under the JCPOA, but some other parties, especially the USA, have failed to live up to their undertakings.

"He's not walking away from it".

Who says they are not holding up their end of the deal? Jacob Lew, the former Treasury secretary, joined the discussion by phone.

"If the feeling is that the United States no longer supports the agreement, then the political reality is that the agreement will be in serious jeopardy and its implementation will be very hard", a senior French diplomat said. Free from the sanctions, Iran has seen its economy bouncing back with an accelerated growth rate of 9.2% in its latest quarter.

Trump, who pledged during his campaign to rip up the Iran deal, has recertified it twice since taking office in January and hates having to do so. "There is [neither] technical, nor political space to renegotiate this deal".

The involvement of Congress is not required under the agreement known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which was approved by the United Nations. But again, none of that is likely since the USA would be essentially tearing up the agreement and taking the blame for whatever comes next.

The step would not withdraw the United States from the deal but would give the U.S. Congress 60 days to decide whether to reimpose the sanctions on Tehran that were suspended under an agreement that was negotiated by the United States and other world powers during the administration of former President Barack Obama.


What does Mr Trump say?

European officials expressed relief that the White House speech did not appear to represent an USA abrogation of the 2015 deal, which they had intensively lobbied against since it became clear over recent months that Trump did not want to continue to certify the deal to Congress. Even Iran hawks who are close to Trump, like Sen. Benjamin Cardin, Md., the ranking Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, learned of their work a little over a week ago. It also reported the announcement would probably be Friday and that the administration doesn't want to scrap the deal entirely and proposed a legislative remedy. Tillerson's spokesman said they discussed several issues, including Iran. They want to find other ways to clamp down on Tehran.

Some Democrats complain it would be hard to join in a bipartisan plan to restrain Iran's nuclear ambitions.

It also would indicate that the United States would be willing to renegotiate agreements with every new administration, giving other countries reason to hesitate on negotiations if they felt future leadership would give them a better deal, Mogherini added. Under the deal, which started being implemented in January 2016, Iran undertakes to limit its nuclear activities and allow transparent global control of its nuclear program. "Ironically he may have limited our ability to confront Iran, rather than expand it".

Senior U.S. officials, European allies and prominent U.S. lawmakers have told Trump that refusing to certify the deal would leave the U.S. isolated, concede the diplomatic high ground to Tehran, and ultimately risk the unraveling of the agreement. Many Democrats believe that is more likely to happen if Congress does not act to make changes to the existing agreement.

She pointed to other global agreements that the United States has abandoned but the rest of the world has remained committed to, including the Paris Agreement on climate change, and said, "What will happen would simply be that the USA will contravene a UNSC resolution and the rest of the world will stick to it". "But the good news is if we can get to the American public like we did on health care. and we have our military, Cabinet members who already think the deal is working, we hope he would re-evaluate".

"The deal not only will hold, but the deal does not belong to one country or another".

Other reports by Ligue1talk

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